ESPN data updated: 30m ago
FFL·HELPER
Matchup
CONNOR v. JAKE
Win probability
43.9%
You
126.51
Them
117.08
Margin
+9.43

CONNOR — Active ESPN Roster 126.51proj

Slot Player Team %ST ESPN Sleeper ADJ PROJ Matchup
QB CHI Thu
34% 17.99 17.34 17.66
RB1 KC Sun
95% 19.32 18.51 18.91
RB2 IND Sun
99% 15.15 17.84 16.5
WR1 DET Sun
43% 19.83 19.43 19.63
WR2 CAR Sun
86% 16.06 15.38 15.72
TE DET Sun
34% 12.75 12.91 12.83
FLEX LAR Sun
96% 19.84 19.76 19.8
DST SF Sun
46% 4.36 6.57 5.46
K JAX
77% 0.0 — 0.0 —

Bench benched in ESPN 69.32proj

Slot Player Team %ST ESPN Sleeper ADJ PROJ Matchup
QB CAR Sun
50% 17.93 18.02 17.98
RB SEA Sun
56% 7.86 7.89 7.88
WR NYJ Sun
89% 15.27 16.66 15.96
WR NE Thu
43% 16.25 14.81 15.53
TE GB Sun
71% 12.24 11.7 11.97
DST JAX
48% 0.0 — 0.0 —

Game-day decisions 1 still unresolved

bench A.J. Brown QUES Inactives in 2d 4h, then 1h 30m to act.

A team must submit its inactive list 90 minutes before kickoff; until then "Questionable" means they have not decided, and nobody outside the building knows. Your league locks each player at his own kickoff — not at the first game of the week — so that 90 minutes is real time to act, and a Thursday player has to be settled three days before a Sunday one. This page refreshes every five minutes once a window is open.

IR slot empty 6on bench

Empty, and nobody on your bench is eligible — a designation has to be IR (and sometimes PUP or suspended) before ESPN will take him. Nothing to do, which is the usual answer.

JAKE — Active ESPN Roster 117.08proj

Slot Player Team %ST ESPN Sleeper ADJ PROJ Matchup
QB LAR Sun
70% 18.96 16.96 17.96
RB1 HOU Sun
32% 9.28 11.2 10.24
RB2 NYG Sun
62% 6.59 3.7 5.14
WR1 SEA Sun
99% 20.47 22.82 21.64
WR2 DAL Mon
99% 18.85 17.68 18.27
TE NO Sun
43% 8.69 10.69 9.69
FLEX GB Sun
85% 16.97 17.84 17.41
DST PIT Sun
89% 6.41 6.74 6.58
K HOU Sun
89% 11.26 9.04 10.15

Their bench on ESPN's bench right now 92.33proj

Slot Player Team %ST ESPN Sleeper ADJ PROJ Matchup
RB CIN Sun
41% 14.75 14.85 14.8
RB PHI Mon
26% 14.95 13.77 14.36
RB MIN Sun
23% 12.39 10.64 11.52
WR CAR Sun
59% 15.67 13.97 14.82
WR ARI Sun
59% 12.51 12.63 12.57
WR DEN Sun
46% 11.28 13.69 12.48
WR CLE Sun
48% 12.3 11.25 11.78

This Week's Signals what the projections do not say

Injuries on your roster

  • A.J. Brown WR · NE bench
    Questionable — Right Ankle (Sprain). Expected back week 7.
    In his return from a four-game absence Sunday against the Jets, Brown was targeted 10 times but hauled in only three of them for 27 yards. It appears he's still bothered by his previous right ankle sprain, as evidenced by a capped walkthrough Monday, but he still has two more chances to get back to full this week before potentially being tagged with a designation for Thursday's contest at Chicago.

Game environment market odds

  • Bryce Young QB · CAR vs TB · CAR -3.5
    sunny.
  • Kyren Williams RB · LAR vs LV · LAR -4.5
    sunny.
  • Kenneth Walker RB · KC vs SEA · SEA -2.5
    intermittent clouds.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET vs GB · DET -3
    shootout: 53.5 total, the week's high end; intermittent clouds.
  • Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ vs MIA · NYJ -4.5
    low-scoring game projected: 38.5 total; sunny.
  • Sam LaPorta TE · DET vs GB · DET -3
    shootout: 53.5 total, the week's high end; intermittent clouds.
  • Jonathan Taylor RB · IND vs MIN · MIN -6.5
    hazy sunshine.
  • San Francisco 49ers DST · SF vs ATL · SF -3
    shootout: 50.5 total, the week's high end; sunny.

Extreme matchups

  • Bryce Young soft
    vs TB — ranks 30 of 32 -- one of the softest defences against QBs.
  • Jonathan Taylor tough
    vs MIN — ranks 4 of 32 -- one of the hardest defences against RBs.

Context only — backtesting showed applying this as a projection adjustment made accuracy worse.

Sources disagree

  • Jonathan Taylor RB
    ESPN 15.15 vs Sleeper 17.84 — a 2.69-point gap, with Sleeper higher. A gap this size usually means the two disagree about his role, not his talent.
  • San Francisco 49ers DST
    ESPN 4.36 vs Sleeper 6.57 — a 2.21-point gap, with Sleeper higher. A gap this size usually means the two disagree about his role, not his talent.

Bench same columns, for comparison

Pos Player Proj rk Opp D Proj Split Floor–ceil Season rk PPG YPG REC CAR
QB CHI Thu QB13 NE 19 17.66 1 8–27 QB7 20.83 274 0.0 6.3
WR CAR Sun WR16 TB 11 15.72 1 4–27 WR13 17.82 94 6.4 0.0
WR NE Thu WR17 CHI 24 15.53 1 3–28 WR33 5.65 26 3.0 0.0
TE GB Sun TE6 DET 24 11.97 1 3–21 TE9 9.4 42 4.2 0.3
RB SEA Sun RB35 KC 3 7.88 0 0–18 RB49 9.38 59 0.8 14.5
DST JAX DST31 0.0 1 src 0–2 DST5 7.67 0 0.0 0.0

Outcome Range

Win prob
44.6%
Median margin
-4
Bad week
-43
Good week
+36

20000 simulated matchups; 14 lineups evaluated. "Bad"/"good" are the 10th and 90th percentile margins.

Data

Rosters from espn.
Variance measured from 5,687 player-weeks in 2025.
Team-mate correlation is not modelled, so a QB and his receiver are treated as independent — real ranges are slightly wider than shown.