PAUL — Active ESPN Roster 120.39proj
| Slot | Player | Team | %ST | ESPN | Sleeper | ADJ PROJ | Matchup |
| QB |
Sun
|
83% | 20.73 | 18.64 | 19.69 | ||
| RB1 |
Sun
|
99% | 22.19 | 19.74 | 20.96 | ||
| RB2 |
suggest bench
|
73% | 0.0 | — | 0.0 | — | |
| WR1 |
Sun
|
93% | 17.0 | 17.71 | 17.36 | ||
| WR2 |
Sun
|
94% | 18.0 | 13.81 | 15.91 | ||
| TE |
Sun
|
81% | 14.42 | 11.82 | 13.12 | ||
| FLEX |
Sun
|
89% | 17.82 | 19.68 | 18.75 | ||
| DST |
Sun
suggest bench
|
84% | 4.83 | 5.99 | 5.41 | ||
| K |
Sun
|
86% | 9.67 | 8.71 | 9.19 |
Bench benched in ESPN 49.99proj
| Slot | Player | Team | %ST | ESPN | Sleeper | ADJ PROJ | Matchup |
| QB |
Sun
|
33% | 19.8 | 19.01 | 19.41 | ||
| RB |
Thu
suggest start
|
6% | 10.89 | 9.53 | 10.21 | ||
| WR |
Thu
|
54% | 12.84 | 12.49 | 12.66 | ||
| WR |
|
40% | 0.0 | — | 0.0 O | — | |
| WR |
|
22% | 0.0 | — | 0.0 O | — | |
| TE |
Sun
|
57% | 10.68 | 10.32 | 0.0 O | ||
| DST |
Sun
suggest start
|
36% | 8.13 | 7.3 | 7.71 |
IR slot available — and worth using 7on bench
Your IR slot is empty while these could possibly go there: Tyler Warren (OUT), Terry McLaurin (OUT), DJ Moore (OUT), Kyle Monangai (OUT). ESPN does not publish which designations its IR slot accepts, so this is a candidate rather than a certainty — try it and ESPN will say.
BILL — Active ESPN Roster 97.77proj
| Slot | Player | Team | %ST | ESPN | Sleeper | ADJ PROJ | Matchup |
| QB |
Sun
|
25% | 20.26 | 22.48 | 0.0 O | ||
| RB1 |
Sun
|
46% | 26.43 | 25.23 | 25.83 | ||
| RB2 |
Sun
|
74% | 14.78 | 16.3 | 15.54 | ||
| WR1 |
Sun
|
93% | 15.99 | 17.07 | 16.53 | ||
| WR2 |
Sun
|
31% | 14.66 | 15.3 | 14.98 | ||
| TE |
Thu
|
57% | 11.62 | 9.76 | 10.69 | ||
| FLEX |
Sun
|
44% | 13.98 | 11.63 | 0.0 O | ||
| DST |
Sun
|
78% | 4.61 | 6.9 | 5.76 | ||
| K |
Mon
|
95% | 8.16 | 8.71 | 8.44 |
Their bench on ESPN's bench right now 57.7proj
| Slot | Player | Team | %ST | ESPN | Sleeper | ADJ PROJ | Matchup |
| QB |
Sun
|
20% | 16.29 | 19.41 | 17.85 | ||
| RB |
Sun
|
18% | 12.78 | 12.68 | 0.0 N | ||
| WR |
Sun
|
53% | 15.08 | 12.42 | 13.75 | ||
| WR |
Sun
|
14% | 8.51 | 10.37 | 9.44 | ||
| WR |
Sun
|
61% | 0.0 | 17.59 | 0.0 O | ||
| TE |
Mon
|
50% | 11.11 | 11.1 | 11.11 | ||
| DST |
Sun
|
81% | 5.09 | 6.02 | 5.55 |
This Week's Signals what the projections do not say
Injuries on your roster
-
Kyle Monangai
STARTING
Out — Toe (Sprain). Expected back week 7.
-
Tyler Warren
bench
Out — Groin. Expected back week 7.
-
Terry McLaurin
bench
Out — Left Knee. Expected back week 8.After recording a 27-yard reception on the Commanders' opening drive, McLaurin went down with the injury on the team's second possession of the first quarter, when he lost his balance and fell awkwardly to the field while running a route on a third-and-9 play. McLaurin was carted off the field and fitted for an air cast before the Commanders quickly ruled him out for the rest of the game. The upcoming imaging will reveal the extent of McLaurin's injury, but head coach Dan Quinn acknowledged after the game that the Commanders are bracing for their No. 1 wideout to miss time, per John Keim of ESPN.com. If McLaurin is in fact sidelined for any stretch of action, Stefon Diggs would presumably settle in as Washington's new top wideout, with tight end Chig Okonkwo, running backs Rachaad White and Austin Ekeler and receivers Antonio Williams and Treylon Burks also potentially benefiting from added opportunities in the passing game.
-
DJ Moore
bench
Out — Shoulder - AC Joint (Sprain). Expected back week 8.
Game environment market odds
-
Brock Purdy
shootout: 50.5 total, the week's high end; sunny.
-
Christian McCaffrey
shootout: 50.5 total, the week's high end; sunny.
-
Kyle Monangai
shootout: 50.5 total, the week's high end; mostly clear.
-
Zay Flowers
shootout: 51.5 total, the week's high end; sunny.
-
Nico Collins
10.0-point favourite, which usually means a run-heavy script; intermittent clouds.
-
Isaiah Likely
10.0-point underdog, which usually means passing volume; intermittent clouds.
-
Malik Nabers
10.0-point underdog, which usually means passing volume; intermittent clouds.
-
Minnesota Vikings
hazy sunshine.
-
Spencer Shrader
hazy sunshine.
Extreme matchups
-
Christian McCaffrey
tough
vs ATL — ranks 2 of 32 -- one of the hardest defences against RBs.
-
Isaiah Likely
tough
vs HOU — ranks 2 of 32 -- one of the hardest defences against TEs.
-
Malik Nabers
tough
vs HOU — ranks 1 of 32 -- one of the hardest defences against WRs.
Context only — backtesting showed applying this as a projection adjustment made accuracy worse.
Since you last looked
-
Kyle Monangai
now Out - cannot play
Sources disagree
-
Malik Nabers
ESPN 18.0 vs Sleeper 13.81 — a 4.19-point gap, with ESPN higher. A gap this size usually means the two disagree about his role, not his talent.
-
Isaiah Likely
ESPN 14.42 vs Sleeper 11.82 — a 2.6-point gap, with ESPN higher. A gap this size usually means the two disagree about his role, not his talent.
-
Christian McCaffrey
ESPN 22.19 vs Sleeper 19.74 — a 2.45-point gap, with ESPN higher. A gap this size usually means the two disagree about his role, not his talent.
-
Brock Purdy
ESPN 20.73 vs Sleeper 18.64 — a 2.09-point gap, with ESPN higher. A gap this size usually means the two disagree about his role, not his talent.
Lineup Reasoning 53.6% to win
| Slot | Player | Proj rk | Opp D | Proj | Split | Floor–ceil | Season rk | PPG | YPG | REC | CAR |
| QB |
Sun
|
QB3 | ATL 18 | 19.69 | 10–29 | QB2 | 22.67 | 269 | 0.0 | 5.0 | |
| RB1 |
Sun
|
RB3 | ATL 2 | 20.96 | 12–30 | RB2 | 20.33 | 90 | 4.7 | 12.8 | |
| RB2 |
Thu
|
RB28 | NE 13 | 10.21 | 1–20 | RB22 | 14.82 | 91 | 1.2 | 15.0 | |
| WR1 |
Sun
|
WR6 | CIN 19 | 18.75 | 7–30 | WR8 | 18.9 | 101 | 6.4 | 0.6 | |
| WR2 |
Sun
|
WR11 | NYG 27 | 17.36 | 7–28 | WR9 | 18.38 | 84 | 5.5 | 0.5 | |
| TE |
Sun
|
TE4 | HOU 2 | 13.12 | 2–24 | TE5 | 18.22 | 64 | 6.5 | 0.0 | |
| DST |
Sun
|
DST1 | 7.71 | 0–17 | DST1 | 13.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| K |
Sun
|
K4 | 9.19 | 4–15 | K1 | 13.83 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| FLEX |
Sun
|
WR15 | HOU 1 | 15.91 | ±4 | 4–27 | WR11 | 17.07 | 82 | 6.8 | 0.0 |
The two rank columns answer different questions.
Proj rk is a forecast — where this week's
projection puts him at his position, for this Sunday only.
Season rk is his track record — where he
actually ranks on fantasy points per game already scored. When they disagree,
the projection is betting on something changing. Opp D is that defense against the position,
1 = toughest to score on, 32 = softest.
Proj is blended across
espn + sleeper;
Split is how far they disagree, which matters on its own —
two sources at 8 and 16 average to the same 12 as two at 12 and 12, but only
one of those is a confident start.
Floor–ceil covers 80% of outcomes, measured from 5,687 player-weeks in 2025.
PPG / YPG / REC / CAR are actual 2026 production. Click any player for the
week-by-week detail.
Opp D is context only: backtested on a season it had never seen,
applying it as a projection adjustment made accuracy worse.
Close Calls what each swap would cost
Most weeks the highest-projected lineup is also the one that wins most often, because a bench player usually has both a lower projection and a smaller swing — there is nothing to trade. These are the marginal calls, priced in win probability, so you can apply something the model doesn't know (a weather report, a beat writer's note) without guessing what it costs.
| Swap | Pts | Win % | |
| QB | Brock Purdy → Joe Burrow | -0.3 | -0.07 |
| DST | Minnesota Vikings → Seattle Seahawks | -2.3 | -2.62 |
| FLEX | Malik Nabers → Luther Burden | -3.2 | -3.91 |
| WR | Nico Collins → Luther Burden | -4.7 | -5.63 |
| WR | Zay Flowers → Luther Burden | -6.1 | -7.22 |
| RB | Kyle Monangai → James Cook | -10.2 | -12.11 |
Bench same columns, for comparison
| Pos | Player | Proj rk | Opp D | Proj | Split | Floor–ceil | Season rk | PPG | YPG | REC | CAR |
| QB |
Sun
|
QB5 | BAL 10 | 19.41 | 8–31 | QB9 | 20.85 | 282 | 0.0 | 3.0 | |
| WR |
Thu
|
WR23 | NE 32 | 12.66 | 0–25 | WR38 | 12.22 | 64 | 5.2 | 1.2 | |
| DST |
Sun
|
DST15 | 5.41 | 0–11 | DST3 | 7.83 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| RB |
|
RB115 | 0.0 | 0–2 | RB6 | 18.93 | 119 | 1.7 | 19.5 | ||
| TE |
Sun
|
TE11 | MIN 13 | 0.0 | 0–0 | TE6 | 13.98 | 44 | 6.0 | 0.6 | |
| WR |
|
WR180 | 0.0 | 0–0 | WR41 | 9.2 | 46 | 3.0 | 0.0 | ||
| WR |
|
WR185 | 0.0 | 0–0 | WR48 | 9.07 | 46 | 3.0 | 0.5 |
Outcome Range
20000 simulated matchups; 17 lineups evaluated. "Bad"/"good" are the 10th and 90th percentile margins.
Data
Variance measured from 5,687 player-weeks in 2025.
Team-mate correlation is not modelled, so a QB and his receiver are treated as independent — real ranges are slightly wider than shown.