ESPN data updated: 36m ago
FFL·HELPER
Matchup
PAUL v. BILL
Win probability
38.9%
You
120.39
Them
97.77
Margin
+22.62

PAUL — Active ESPN Roster 120.39proj

Applying a lineup from here needs your invite link opened once on this device — that link is what proves which team you may change. Ask Paul to resend it, then this page can set the lineup for you.

Slot Player Team %ST ESPN Sleeper ADJ PROJ Matchup
QB SF Sun
83% 20.73 18.64 19.69
RB1 SF Sun
99% 22.19 19.74 20.96
RB2 BUF suggest bench
73% 0.0 — 0.0 —
WR1 HOU Sun
93% 17.0 17.71 17.36
WR2 NYG Sun
94% 18.0 13.81 15.91
TE NYG Sun
81% 14.42 11.82 13.12
FLEX BAL Sun
89% 17.82 19.68 18.75
DST SEA Sun suggest bench
84% 4.83 5.99 5.41
K IND Sun
86% 9.67 8.71 9.19

Bench benched in ESPN 49.99proj

Slot Player Team %ST ESPN Sleeper ADJ PROJ Matchup
QB CIN Sun
33% 19.8 19.01 19.41
RB CHI Thu suggest start
6% 10.89 9.53 10.21
WR CHI Thu
54% 12.84 12.49 12.66
WR WAS
40% 0.0 — 0.0 O —
WR BUF
22% 0.0 — 0.0 O —
TE IND Sun
57% 10.68 10.32 0.0 O
DST MIN Sun suggest start
36% 8.13 7.3 7.71

IR slot available — and worth using 7on bench

Your IR slot is empty while these could possibly go there: Tyler Warren (OUT), Terry McLaurin (OUT), DJ Moore (OUT), Kyle Monangai (OUT). ESPN does not publish which designations its IR slot accepts, so this is a candidate rather than a certainty — try it and ESPN will say.

This app does not make the move; set it in ESPN.

BILL — Active ESPN Roster 97.77proj

Slot Player Team %ST ESPN Sleeper ADJ PROJ Matchup
QB BAL Sun
25% 20.26 22.48 0.0 O
RB1 DET Sun
46% 26.43 25.23 25.83
RB2 CAR Sun
74% 14.78 16.3 15.54
WR1 NO Sun
93% 15.99 17.07 16.53
WR2 CIN Sun
31% 14.66 15.3 14.98
TE CHI Thu
57% 11.62 9.76 10.69
FLEX CLE Sun
44% 13.98 11.63 0.0 O
DST LAR Sun
78% 4.61 6.9 5.76
K DAL Mon
95% 8.16 8.71 8.44

Their bench on ESPN's bench right now 57.7proj

Slot Player Team %ST ESPN Sleeper ADJ PROJ Matchup
QB DEN Sun
20% 16.29 19.41 17.85
RB GB Sun
18% 12.78 12.68 0.0 N
WR PIT Sun
53% 15.08 12.42 13.75
WR TEN Sun
14% 8.51 10.37 9.44
WR SF Sun
61% 0.0 17.59 0.0 O
TE PHI Mon
50% 11.11 11.1 11.11
DST BAL Sun
81% 5.09 6.02 5.55

This Week's Signals what the projections do not say

Injuries on your roster

  • Kyle Monangai RB · CHI STARTING
    Out — Toe (Sprain). Expected back week 7.
  • Tyler Warren TE · IND bench
    Out — Groin. Expected back week 7.
  • Terry McLaurin WR · WAS bench
    Out — Left Knee. Expected back week 8.
    After recording a 27-yard reception on the Commanders' opening drive, McLaurin went down with the injury on the team's second possession of the first quarter, when he lost his balance and fell awkwardly to the field while running a route on a third-and-9 play. McLaurin was carted off the field and fitted for an air cast before the Commanders quickly ruled him out for the rest of the game. The upcoming imaging will reveal the extent of McLaurin's injury, but head coach Dan Quinn acknowledged after the game that the Commanders are bracing for their No. 1 wideout to miss time, per John Keim of ESPN.com. If McLaurin is in fact sidelined for any stretch of action, Stefon Diggs would presumably settle in as Washington's new top wideout, with tight end Chig Okonkwo, running backs Rachaad White and Austin Ekeler and receivers Antonio Williams and Treylon Burks also potentially benefiting from added opportunities in the passing game.
  • DJ Moore WR · BUF bench
    Out — Shoulder - AC Joint (Sprain). Expected back week 8.

Game environment market odds

  • Brock Purdy QB · SF vs ATL · SF -3
    shootout: 50.5 total, the week's high end; sunny.
  • Christian McCaffrey RB · SF vs ATL · SF -3
    shootout: 50.5 total, the week's high end; sunny.
  • Kyle Monangai RB · CHI vs NE · CHI -3
    shootout: 50.5 total, the week's high end; mostly clear.
  • Zay Flowers WR · BAL vs CIN · BAL -3
    shootout: 51.5 total, the week's high end; sunny.
  • Nico Collins WR · HOU vs NYG · HOU -10
    10.0-point favourite, which usually means a run-heavy script; intermittent clouds.
  • Isaiah Likely TE · NYG vs HOU · HOU -10
    10.0-point underdog, which usually means passing volume; intermittent clouds.
  • Malik Nabers WR · NYG vs HOU · HOU -10
    10.0-point underdog, which usually means passing volume; intermittent clouds.
  • Minnesota Vikings DST · MIN vs IND · MIN -6.5
    hazy sunshine.
  • Spencer Shrader K · IND vs MIN · MIN -6.5
    hazy sunshine.

Extreme matchups

  • Christian McCaffrey tough
    vs ATL — ranks 2 of 32 -- one of the hardest defences against RBs.
  • Isaiah Likely tough
    vs HOU — ranks 2 of 32 -- one of the hardest defences against TEs.
  • Malik Nabers tough
    vs HOU — ranks 1 of 32 -- one of the hardest defences against WRs.

Context only — backtesting showed applying this as a projection adjustment made accuracy worse.

Since you last looked

  • Kyle Monangai
    now Out - cannot play (10.21 → 0.0)

Sources disagree

  • Malik Nabers WR
    ESPN 18.0 vs Sleeper 13.81 — a 4.19-point gap, with ESPN higher. A gap this size usually means the two disagree about his role, not his talent.
  • Isaiah Likely TE
    ESPN 14.42 vs Sleeper 11.82 — a 2.6-point gap, with ESPN higher. A gap this size usually means the two disagree about his role, not his talent.
  • Christian McCaffrey RB
    ESPN 22.19 vs Sleeper 19.74 — a 2.45-point gap, with ESPN higher. A gap this size usually means the two disagree about his role, not his talent.
  • Brock Purdy QB
    ESPN 20.73 vs Sleeper 18.64 — a 2.09-point gap, with ESPN higher. A gap this size usually means the two disagree about his role, not his talent.

Lineup Reasoning 53.6% to win

This is your highest-projected lineup. Win probability is checked as a tiebreaker, and on a drafted roster it almost never disagrees — across 56 real pairings the two lineups were identical every time. That is structural, not a bug: a bench player with a lower projection almost always has a smaller swing too, so benching a starter costs you points and upside together. The trade-off only exists between players who project similarly with different boom/bust profiles.
Slot Player Proj rk Opp D Proj Split Floor–ceil Season rk PPG YPG REC CAR
QB SF SF Sun QB3 ATL 18 19.69 2 10–29 QB2 22.67 269 0.0 5.0
RB1 SF SF Sun RB3 ATL 2 20.96 2 12–30 RB2 20.33 90 4.7 12.8
RB2 CHI CHI Thu RB28 NE 13 10.21 1 1–20 RB22 14.82 91 1.2 15.0
WR1 BAL BAL Sun WR6 CIN 19 18.75 2 7–30 WR8 18.9 101 6.4 0.6
WR2 HOU HOU Sun WR11 NYG 27 17.36 1 7–28 WR9 18.38 84 5.5 0.5
TE NYG NYG Sun TE4 HOU 2 13.12 3 2–24 TE5 18.22 64 6.5 0.0
DST MIN MIN Sun DST1 IND 7.71 1 0–17 DST1 13.0 0 0.0 0.0
K IND IND Sun K4 MIN 9.19 1 4–15 K1 13.83 0 0.0 0.0
FLEX NYG NYG Sun WR15 HOU 1 15.91 ±4 4–27 WR11 17.07 82 6.8 0.0

The two rank columns answer different questions. Proj rk is a forecast — where this week's projection puts him at his position, for this Sunday only. Season rk is his track record — where he actually ranks on fantasy points per game already scored. When they disagree, the projection is betting on something changing. Opp D is that defense against the position, 1 = toughest to score on, 32 = softest. Proj is blended across espn + sleeper; Split is how far they disagree, which matters on its own — two sources at 8 and 16 average to the same 12 as two at 12 and 12, but only one of those is a confident start. Floor–ceil covers 80% of outcomes, measured from 5,687 player-weeks in 2025.
PPG / YPG / REC / CAR are actual 2026 production. Click any player for the week-by-week detail.
Opp D is context only: backtested on a season it had never seen, applying it as a projection adjustment made accuracy worse.

Close Calls what each swap would cost

Most weeks the highest-projected lineup is also the one that wins most often, because a bench player usually has both a lower projection and a smaller swing — there is nothing to trade. These are the marginal calls, priced in win probability, so you can apply something the model doesn't know (a weather report, a beat writer's note) without guessing what it costs.

SwapPtsWin %
QB Brock Purdy → Joe Burrow (±8 → ±9) -0.3 -0.07
DST Minnesota Vikings → Seattle Seahawks (±7 → ±5) -2.3 -2.62
FLEX Malik Nabers → Luther Burden (±9 → ±10) -3.2 -3.91
WR Nico Collins → Luther Burden (±8 → ±10) -4.7 -5.63
WR Zay Flowers → Luther Burden (±9 → ±10) -6.1 -7.22
RB Kyle Monangai → James Cook (±7 → ±2) -10.2 -12.11

Bench same columns, for comparison

Pos Player Proj rk Opp D Proj Split Floor–ceil Season rk PPG YPG REC CAR
QB CIN Sun QB5 BAL 10 19.41 1 8–31 QB9 20.85 282 0.0 3.0
WR CHI Thu WR23 NE 32 12.66 0 0–25 WR38 12.22 64 5.2 1.2
DST SEA Sun DST15 KC 5.41 1 0–11 DST3 7.83 0 0.0 0.0
RB BUF RB115 0.0 1 src 0–2 RB6 18.93 119 1.7 19.5
TE IND Sun TE11 MIN 13 0.0 10.5 0 0–0 TE6 13.98 44 6.0 0.6
WR WAS WR180 0.0 0.0 1 src 0–0 WR41 9.2 46 3.0 0.0
WR BUF WR185 0.0 0.0 1 src 0–0 WR48 9.07 46 3.0 0.5

Outcome Range

Win prob
53.6%
Median margin
+3
Bad week
-41
Good week
+46

20000 simulated matchups; 17 lineups evaluated. "Bad"/"good" are the 10th and 90th percentile margins.

Data

Rosters from espn.
Variance measured from 5,687 player-weeks in 2025.
Team-mate correlation is not modelled, so a QB and his receiver are treated as independent — real ranges are slightly wider than shown.